The US dollar index has been falling continuously, and competition for the position of Federal Reserve Chairman is booming!

On August 14, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.67. On Wednesday, as investors basically determined that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in September, the US dollar index fell for the second consecutive trading day and fell below the 98 mark, and finally closed down 0.28% to 97.75; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.245%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.683%. Boosted by the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, spot gold rose slightly and once rushed above the $3370 mark during the session, but then most of the gains were given up and finally closed up 0.23%, closing at $3355.83/ounce; spot silver closed up 1.58%, at $38.48/ounce. Oil prices hit a new low in more than two months as the IEA issued pessimistic supply guidelines and U.S. President Trump continued to threaten Russian President Putin. WTI crude oil continued to fall during the day, but rebounded slightly during the US session and finally closed down 0.6% at $62.08/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.55% at $65.34/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at US$97.67. The dollar index (DXY) continued its decline for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, affected by weak inflation data and market expectations of rising Fed rate cuts. The dollar index was 97.81 intraday, the lowest closing price since July 28, and fell 0.2% on Wednesday after falling 0.5%. This trend reflects a heightened bearish sentiment as traders count on radical policy easing expectations. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index remains below the 97.80 level, it will move towards its nearest support level.That is, it is located in the range of 97.10–97.30.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1712. The euro/dollar exchange rate broke through the 1.1700 mark on Wednesday and set a new high in two weeks near 1.1730. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in July was moderate, and there was no significant impact on the economy by Trump's tariffs, strengthening market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut in September, which in turn drove the euro to rise. Although markets expect the Fed to relax monetary policy, traders remained concerned about Fed officials' speeches, and the exchange rate rebounded slightly in the short term. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes above resistance level 1.1685–1.1700, it will move towards the next resistance level 1.1800–1.1815.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3585. The pound rose to around 1.3570 against the dollar on Wednesday. The pair continues to rise as markets bet the Fed will cut interest rates at its September policy meeting, causing the dollar to face selling pressure. The pound strengthened against major currencies on Wednesday, as investors are waiting for the UK's second-quarter GDP initial data released on Thursday. At the same time, the cooling of the labor market due to the increase in corporate social security contributions is also a major concern for central bank policy makers. Technically, breaking through the 1.3585 level will open the way for testing resistance levels in the range of 1.3665–1.3680.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

In the Asian session on Thursday, gold hovered around 3371.19. Looking ahead, if the expectation of a 50-point interest rate cut in September further heats up, gold is expected to continue to be strong and even challenge a higher threshold; but if geopolitical risks unexpectedly escalate or economic data exceed expectations, gold prices may also face a pullback. Investors should keep an eye on Powell’s speech at Jackson Hall next week and the Trump administration’s potential adjustments to the successor of the Fed’s chairman, which could be a turning point in gold prices. This trading day focuses on changes in the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States and the performance of the US PPI data in July. On Friday, the meeting between Trump and Putin was focused.

Technical surface: The daily chart shows that gold prices cannot break through the flat 20-day simple moving average (SMA), but are far higher than the bullish 100-day moving average and 200-day moving average. At the same time, technical indicators showThe buyer still wait-and-see attitude: the momentum index rose slightly, but was still below the 100 line; while the relative strength index (RSI) hovered around 50. In the short term, according to the 4-hour chart, the risk of gold price trend tends to decline. Technical indicators continue to fall below the midline, in line with the view that gold prices will record lower lows. Meanwhile, the flat 100-cycle SMA provides intraday resistance around $3359/ounce, while the 20-cycle SMA gains bearish traction above the above longer-term moving averages.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Thursday, crude oil trading around 62.11. Oil prices fell to more than two months lows on Wednesday after the U.S. government and the International Energy Agency issued pessimistic supply guidelines, while investors were concerned about the threat from U.S. President Donald Trump, who would face "serious consequences" if Russian President Putin hinders peace in Ukraine. Investors are currently awaiting further U.S. indicators this week, including producer price index, the number of unemployment claims filed last week and retail sales. On the geopolitical front, European and Ukrainian leaders will meet with Trump before Trump meets with Russian President Putin, while China and the United States extend the tariff truce for 90 days.

Technical: Technically, WTI crude oil may further decline due to the price being lower than the 200-day moving average and the 50 moving average and the fundamentals tend to be bearish (increased supply, weak demand and stable Russian exports). Unless the price can rebound above the 50-momentum level of $65.86, the technical trend will support the continued weakening of oil prices, and it is likely to fall below $60 in the short term.

Forex market trading reminder on August 14, 2025

17:00Eurozone's second quarter GDP annual rate correction

17:00Eurozone's second quarter quarterly adjusted employment in the initial quarter rate

17:00Eurozone's June industrial output monthly rate

20:30Eurozone's initial request for unemployment benefits in the week from the United States to August 9

20 :30 US July PPI annual rate

20:30 US July PPI monthly rate

22:30 US July EIA natural gas inventory in the week from the United States to August 8

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