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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Official Website]: The United States releases a list of tariffs for steel and aluminum derivative products, waiting for Powell Jackson Hall to speak, gold price hovering around 3315". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (August 20 Beijing time), spot gold was trading around $3,315 per ounce, and the market was cautiously optimistic about the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and investors held their breath to wait for Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall later this week; U.S. crude oil traded around $62.10 per barrel, and oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders bet on negotiations on possible agreements to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which may ease sanctions on Russian-Ukrainian crude oil, thereby increasing global supply.
New Zealand Fed Chairman Orr held a press conference on monetary policy, European Central Bank President Lagarde attended a meeting of the World Economic Forum, and Federal Reserve Director Waller delivered a speech at the Wyoming blockchain seminar.
U.S. Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell on Tuesday, dragged down by technology stocks, and investors are watching Fed Chairman Powell's speech on interest rate trends at a major meeting later this week.
The Nasdaq index was dragged down by super large stocks. Nvidia fell 3.5%, its biggest daily decline in nearly four months, and the index rose most of the year.
The key event of this week is the annual symposium held by the Federal Reserve in Jackson Hall, Wyoming from August 21-23, and the market will closely monitor Powell's speech at the meeting to find any clues about the Fed's view on the economic and monetary policy outlook.
James Cox, Managing Partner, HarrisFinancialGroup"It seems that people are doing some hedging operations before the Jackson Hall meeting, and believe that Powell's position may be more hawkish than the market currently expects." According to data qxkkl.cnpiled by the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), interest rate futures trends show that the market is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, each at 25 basis points, and the first rate cut is expected to be in September.
Some market participants also expressed some concerns about AI-related stocks. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in an interview with TheVerge later last week that AI-related stocks are in a bubble.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained basically flat, rising 10.45 points to 44,922.27 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.59% to 6,411.37 points, and the Nasdaq fell 1.46% to 21,314.95 points.
Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, said some investors are taking profits on tech stocks and rotating into other sectors. “(This trend) spreads to the wider market because these stocks are more weighted in the major indexes,” he added.
Nevertheless, six sectors in the S&P 500 still rose. Real estate stocks led the gains, up 1.8%, driven by better-than-expected property market data. On the other hand, technology stocks and qxkkl.cnmunications services stocks fell more than 1.9% and 1.2% respectively.
The latest Reuters survey shows that the U.S. S&P 500 will be slightly below its current close to an all-time high by the end of 2025, reflecting a weakening of optimism amid continued concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s global tariffs and the uncertainty of the Fed’s interest rate cut. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record high on Tuesday, helping Home Depot keep its annual financial forecast unchanged, driving stock prices to rise.
Home Depot rose 3.17%, and its rival home improvement chain Lowe also rose 2.18% despite quarterly results falling short of expectations. The market focuses on results released by Lowe’s and major retailers Walmart and Target later this week, with investors waiting for more data to reflect the health of U.S. consumers. "Consumers are not fully liberalizing their consumption, they are a little cautious. They are waiting to see the full impact of tariffs on upcoming holiday sales in a few months." Intel rose about 7% after the chip maker received $2 billion in investment from Japan's SoftBank Group.
On Tuesday, gold prices fell slightly as the US dollar strengthened. Investors are holding their breath for Fed Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hall later this week.
Spot gold fell 0.4% to $3317.71 per ounce. The contract fell to its lowest level since August 1 at the beginning of the session. DecemberUS gold futures for delivery closed down 0.6% to $3,358.7. The US dollar index narrowed its decline and remained stable; the index's 10-year yield declined. "Overall, [traders] are making arrangements for the Jackson Hall meeting in advance in the futures market... before that," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. "The Fed will hold its annual seminar later this week in Jackson Hall, Wyoming, with Fed Chairman Powell scheduled to speak on Friday on the economic outlook and the Fed's policy framework. U.S. President Trump continues to urge the Fed to seek a bigger rate cut.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders believe the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 85%. Meanwhile, Trump said on Tuesday that he hopes Russia's Putin can move towards an end to the Ukrainian war.
In terms of data, the minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting to be released on Wednesday are expected to reveal the outlook for the US economy.
UBS raised its gold price target at the end of March 2026 by $100 to $3,600 on Monday, as it continues to exist in the U.S. macroeconomic risks, falling US dollar usage and strong investment demand.
Spot silver fell 1.8% to $37.34 per ounce; platinum fell 1.1% to $1,307.90; palladium fell 1.6% to $1,104.68.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as traders bet on negotiations on a possible agreement to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict could ease sanctions on Russian crude oil, thereby increasing global supply.
Brent crude oil futures closed at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22%. U.S. crude oil futures, which will expire on Wednesday, closed at $62.35 a barrel, down 1.69%.
Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup, said: Even with this peace dividend, our short positions have set a record, and people are betting on a ceasefire, and if there is no ceasefire, there may be a rebound.
After the White House held a meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European allies on Monday, U.S. President Trump posted on social media that he had spoken with Russian President Putin. Trump said that a meeting between Putin and Zelensky is being arranged, which could lead to a trilateral summit attended by three leaders.
SuvroSarkar, chief energy analyst at DBS, said Trump's softening stance on secondary sanctions against Russian oil importers has reduced the risk of global supply disruptions and slightly eased geopolitical tensions.
Asian major refineries have purchased 15 Russian oil cargoes due to the decline in demand for Moscow's exports, two analysts and a trader said on Tuesdayand November delivery.
The dollar rose and fell on Tuesday, and traders awaited a seminar on economic policy at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hall later this week for further clues about U.S. interest rate policy.
There are few important economic data to drive market direction this week, and traders focus on Fed Chairman Powell’s speech on Friday to pay attention to whether Powell will downplay market expectations for a rate cut in September.
The July employment report was weak and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed limited upward pressure on tariffs, pushing traders to increase bets on the Fed's interest rate cut from September 16 to 17. However, the July Producer Price Index (PPI) data was higher than expected, hitting expectations for interest rate cuts. Powell previously said he was reluctant to cut interest rates because tariffs are expected to push up inflation this summer.
UBS Forex and macro strategist Vassili Serebriakov said, "Last week, we had digested the expectation of a rate cut of about 25 basis points in September and the expectation of a more than two rate cuts for the rest of the year. If Powell's qxkkl.cnmitment to a rate cut in September is not clear enough, his speech may let those expectations go down." Serebriakov added: "Now we expect a rate cut of about 20 basis points in September, and the expectation of a rate cut for the rest of the year is slightly higher than 50 basis points, and I think the risks are more balanced." Traders currently expect interest rates to be cut by 54 basis points by the end of the year.
The Fed will also release records of its July 29-30 meeting on Wednesday, but the qxkkl.cnrmation transmitted may be limited, which qxkkl.cnes ahead of the release of a weak July jobs report. Data released on Tuesday showed that while high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty continue to hinder home purchases, single-family home starts and building permits in the U.S. were up in July.
The US dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.27. The euro fell 0.12% against the dollar to $1.1646. The dollar fell 0.22% against the yen to 147.54 yen. After the sharp decline in the US dollar in the first half of this year, the foreign exchange market trend in the past few weeks was relatively flat.
The pound fell 0.16% against the dollar to $1.348. The Australian dollar fell 0.62% against the dollar, hitting its lowest since August 5, of $0.6451.
Traders are also concerned about the progress of peace talks ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he hopes Russian President Putin can push for an end to the Ukrainian war, but admitted that Putin may not want to reach a deal at all, adding that it would create a "hard situation" for Putin.
On August 19, local time, the U.S. Department of qxkkl.cnmerce announced that 407 product categories will be included in the steel and aluminum tariff list, with an applicable tax rate of 50%. The Ministry of qxkkl.cnmerce stated that the new list covers a wide range of areas, including wind turbinesHundreds of products including machines and their qxkkl.cnponents, mobile cranes, railway vehicles, furniture, qxkkl.cnpressors and pump equipment.
The U.S. White House spokesman Levitt said on the 19th local time that the U.S. Department of qxkkl.cnmerce is still continuing to promote the U.S. government's acquisition of 10% of Intel shares, and U.S. Secretary of qxkkl.cnmerce Lutnik is starting to solve the details. In an interview with the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel on the 19th, Lutnik said that Intel must provide equity in exchange for federal subsidies. Previously, there were US media reports that the Trump administration is considering acquiring 10% of Intel's shares. The government is considering converting Intel's approved federal subsidies into Intel's equity, according to White House officials and people familiar with the matter.
On the 19th local time, the White House Press Secretary Levitt said that the US military will not be deployed in Ukraine, but can provide coordination and security assistance. Trump directed the national security team to coordinate with Europe. Levitt said Trump has proposed a solution to get NATO to buy American weapons. Levitt also said that Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky have expressed their willingness to sit down and negotiate, and that Trump hopes Russia and Ukraine will engage in direct diplomacy. At present, arrangements for Zelensky's meeting with Putin are underway.
The U.S. Stablecoin Certification Review Board will determine whether the state’s framework is “substantively similar” to the federal stablecoin issuance system. The qxkkl.cnmittee, led by the Treasury Secretary, includes the Federal Reserve Chairman and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), needs to reach an agreement before state jurisdictions can obtain federal approval for stablecoin regulation. The GENIUS Act aims to simplify state-level regulation, and Gavin Meyers, a regulatory partner at Pierson Ferdinand LLP, said the bill is expected to reduce the chaos in state regulation.
On August 19 local time, the European Council held a video conference to discuss the Ukraine issue. Meeting in Washington. EU's senior representative for foreign affairs and security policy, Karas, said after the meeting that EU leadershipPeople are qxkkl.cnmitted to achieving lasting peace to protect the vital security interests of Ukraine and Europe. Karas said the EU will continue to take measures against Russia, and the next round of sanctions plan against Moscow is expected to be released in September. Karas said the topics have been listed as the top topics for the EU's foreign and defense ministers to discuss the agenda next week.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sebiga said on social media today on August 19 that the upcoming meeting between Ukrainian, the United States and Russia may make a breakthrough in the road to peace. Sebiga noted that despite Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, with the participation of European and NATO leaders, have made efforts to advance the peace process, Moscow has continued to take action to launch new attacks and destruction. He stressed the importance of stopping killing, achieving lasting peace and providing reliable security.
It is reported that large American technology qxkkl.cnpanies are eager for talent for artificial intelligence (AI) talents, and some qxkkl.cnpanies offer AI researchers billions of dollars in salaries and use unconventional means to seize top talents. In addition to paying high salaries, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google parent Alphabet have adopted a strategy called "reverseacquihire", that is, instead of directly acquiring startups, they poach their founders and top AI researchers, or seek permission to use their technology, and then leave the qxkkl.cnpany's empty shell, which can find new directions on its own or be acquired by other qxkkl.cnpanies.
U.S. President Trump reiterated in an interview with Fox News on Tuesday (19th) local time that Ukraine should not join NATO. According to reports, this is also a key requirement put forward by Russia. In addition, Trump ruled out the possibility of the United States sending ground forces to Ukraine.
As China's stock market continues to strengthen, the pace of foreign institutions increasing their positions has accelerated. As of August 18, in the disclosed semi-annual reports, qualified overseas institutional investors (QFIIs) appeared in the list of shareholders of more than 70 listed qxkkl.cnpanies, with a total shareholding market value of approximately 6.8 billion yuan. The "boost" atmosphere of foreign institutions for the Chinese market has also heated up simultaneously. The latest views released by many foreign institutions such as Goldman Sachs, UBS, and Morgan Stanley all stated that they continue to be optimistic about the Chinese stock market. Shi Bin, head of China's stocks at UBS Asset Management, said that it is currently a good opportunity to participate in the Chinese market, and is especially optimistic about technology qxkkl.cnpanies with market leadership.
Recently, the 2025 semi-annual reports of A-share listed qxkkl.cnpanies have been disclosed at an accelerated pace, as of today (August 1At 16:00 on the 9th) 9th, 666 listed qxkkl.cnpanies in A-shares disclosed their 2025 semi-annual reports, and 432 qxkkl.cnpanies achieved year-on-year growth in qxkkl.cn profit attributable to shareholders, accounting for more than 60%. The confidence and capital activity of the A-share market have significantly improved, which has also led to a rebound in the performance of equity funds with the stock market as the main investment target. This week, 45 new funds will be raised in the entire market, of which 35 equity funds will be raised. Wang Sheng, director of Shenwan Hongyuan Securities Research Institute, said that equity funds performed outstandingly this year and have been constantly repairing drawdowns in recent years. For example, the latest index of equity-oriented funds hit a new high in the past three years, and the latest qxkkl.cn value of more than 2,000 equity funds hit a record high in August.
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