The dollar hovers around 98, and the interview for next Fed chairman will kick off

On August 20, in the early trading of Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.29. On Tuesday, the US dollar index fluctuated back and forth around the 98 mark during the day, and finally closed up 0.12% to 98.24; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.309%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.759%. Spot gold rose first and then fell, and once rose to the intraday high of 3345.25 during the session, and then continued to fall, and accelerated its decline before the US session, erasing all intraday gains and turning to a decline, and finally closed down 0.51% and closed at $3315.60/ounce; spot silver closed down 1.68% to $37.37/ounce. Crude oil has pulled back as traders began betting that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may end and sanctions on Russian crude oil may ease, thereby increasing global supply. WTI crude oil continued to fall during the day, finally closing down 0.98% at $61.92 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 0.74% at $65.46 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovered at $98.29. The overall US dollar showed a differentiated trend on Tuesday, mainly dragged down by the cautious sentiment before the annual meeting of Jackson Hall Global Central Bank this week. At the meeting, a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will provide guidance on short-term interest rate expectations. Traders are re-aligning their positions as there were no important economic data released before Powell’s speech on Friday, coupled with previous differentiation of inflation signals and weak employment data in July pushing up market bets on a September rate cut. Technically, if the U.S. dollar index closes above 98.20, it will move to the next resistance level 99.20–99.40.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1641. The euro/dollar consolidated above 1.1600 on Tuesday, with investors awaiting a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at Jackson Hole and the outcome of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict resolution. Technically, if the EUR/USD successfully closes below 1.1665, it will move towards the support level of 1.1575-1.1590.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3483. The GBP/USD fell slightly on Tuesday, falling below 1.3500, as traders waited for reasons to take action. There wasn't much to watch on the economic data agenda at the start of the trading week, and the market could only react to the restricted headline stream. All this will start to change on Wednesday. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data in the UK will be released in the upcoming London market time, followed by the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision meeting in the New York market time. Technically, the successful testing of the 1.3485–1.3500 support level will push the GBP/USD to the next support level, that is, in the range of 1.3400–1.3415.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

In the Asian session on Wednesday, gold hovered around 3316.46. Investors are holding their breath for the annual Fed seminar in Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week, especially Chairman Powell’s speech on Friday, which is seen as a key node that could determine the future trend of gold, and markets are concerned that Powell may downplay the prospect of a rate cut that provides rebound momentum for the dollar and suppresses gold prices. In addition, the market is also paying attention to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released later on Wednesday's trading day (2:00 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday).

Technical: From a technical perspective, gold has consolidated sideways in the range of $3330-3370 since last week, and traded around $3342 on Tuesday, indicating that the market lacks a clear direction before major macro events. On the 4-hour chart, gold prices form a downward wedge pattern, which usually implies potential bullish breakthrough risks, but the current price is still limited by the 100-cycle simple moving average (SMA) of $3346.98, and the short-term trend is neutral. Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below the 50 level, reflectingThere is currently a lack of strong momentum drive.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading around 62.00. After talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, WTI fell slightly due to Ukraine's peace prospects. Oil traders expect meetings on potential agreements that legalize or end Russian invasion of Ukraine could ease sanctions on Russian crude oil. This in turn could increase global supply and suppress WTI prices. Trump said meetings between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky are being arranged, which could lead to a trilateral summit attended by three leaders.

Technical: From a technical perspective, WTI crude oil prices are under pressure, hovering around the key level of US$62.00, and the trading price is below the 21-day average (US$64.76) and 50-day average (US$66.31). The bearish pattern remains intact, and if the price falls below this support level, it may trigger a further decline to $60.00, with the next downward target being the low (about $57.47) hit on May 8. On the contrary, the immediate resistance of crude oil prices is at $63.69 (last week's high), followed by the $64.00-65.00 range - a range further strengthened by the downward moving average.

Forex market trading reminder on August 20, 2025

15:10 European Central Bank Governor Lagarde attended the meeting

17:00 Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value

17:00 Eurozone July CPI monthly rate final value

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to August 15

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to August 15

22:30 EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to August 15

22:30 EIA strategic oil reserve inventory inventories in the week from the United States to August 15

< p>23:00 Fed Director Waller delivered a speech at the blockchain seminar

The next day, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting

The next day, the New York crude oil September futures qxkkl.cnpleted the last on-site transaction

The next day, the Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech on the economic outlook

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The US dollar is hovering around 98, and the interview for the next Federal Reserve Chairman will kick off" is carefully qxkkl.cnpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: