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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: The European Central Bank is stuck in a wait-and-see situation, analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil, and foreign exchange on October 9." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose or fell mixedly, with the Dow futures rising 0.13%, the S&P 500 futures rising 0.04%, and the Nasdaq futures falling 0.04%. Germany's DAX index rose 0.35%, Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 0.29%, France's CAC 40 index rose 0.39%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.05%.
⑴ The minutes of the European Central Bank’s September meeting show that policymakers believe that the current interest rate level is stable enough to cope with various shocks, and there is no urgent pressure to adjust policy interest rates in the near future. ⑵ The meeting acknowledged that the economic environment is more uncertain than usual, but emphasized that monetary policy should not fine-tune modest inflation fluctuations around the target. ⑶ There are differences in the judgment of inflation risks among the decision-makers. Some members believe that the risks are biased to the downside, while a few members believe that the risks are biased to the upside. ⑷The central bank made it clear that "waiting for more qxkkl.cnrmation has a high option value," implying that it will maintain policy stability until key data becomes clear. ⑸ Market pricing reflects that the probability of an interest rate cut this year has basically returned to zero, and the probability of the last interest rate cut in the first half of 2026 is only one-third. ⑹ Although interest rates have been cut by 200 basis points since June, relatively benign data and Lagarde's remarks on narrowing inflation risks have further reduced the possibility of continued easing. ⑺The political turmoil in France, the sharp decline in German industrial output, and the rapid decline in exports to the United States constitute the main sources of economic downside risks. ⑻The continued rise in household savings, weak private consumption, and shrinking corporate profitability are these factors.Together they support the decision to maintain current interest rates.
⑴ S&P Global is expected to maintain Italy’s “BBB+” rating and stable outlook in its rating review on Friday, and will not follow Fitch’s upgrade last month. ⑵Although Italy's fiscal deficit rate is expected to drop to 3% this year, reaching the target for the first time since the epidemic, the worsening growth prospects have hindered the rating upgrade. ⑶ The U.S. government’s tariff remarks are expected to cost Italy 0.5% of GDP in 2026, causing the government to lower its growth forecast for this year and next to 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. ⑷ BBVA pointed out that the better-than-expected deficit level was offset by a slightly worsened growth outlook, which became the main reason for maintaining the current rating. ⑸ HSBC economists believe that S&P is more likely to remain on the sidelines and wait for next spring's assessment before adjusting the outlook based on actual deficit reduction and growth resilience. ⑹ When testifying in parliament, the Italian Minister of Economy emphasized that "we have qxkkl.cnpleted our homework very well and deserve to be recognized", expressing his expectations for the rating agency's follow-up actions. ⑺In contrast to France's continued downgrades, Italy has recently received a series of positive rating actions. Fitch upgraded it to BBB+ in September, and S&P also upgraded it in April. ⑻ DBRS and Moody's both have positive outlooks on Italy. DBRS and Scope rating assessments will also be held this month, and Moody's will announce the results in November.
⑴The U.S. government shutdown deadlock continues and expands in scope. Institutions predict that the shutdown is likely to extend until November, referring to the 35-day shutdown cycle in 2018-2019. ⑵ Market trading is light but cautious, with the 10-year Treasury bond yield fluctuating between 4.20% and 4%. Investors are paying attention to the results of Thursday's $22 billion 30-year Treasury bond auction. ⑶ Wall Street Journal analysis pointed out that the surge in gold is in conflict with the stability of the bond market: the five-year forward breakeven inflation rate is still anchored near the 2% target, and there is no concern about currency depreciation. ⑷ New York Fed President Williams emphasized the focus on the risk of a slowdown in the labor market, believing that Trump's tariff remarks have not triggered a second round of inflationary effects. ⑸The weakness of the U.S. dollar stems from the reduction of U.S. dollar holdings by many central banks and the increase in gold euro holdings. However, the negative interest rate differential caused by the underestimation of the U.S. dollar is expected to trigger large-scale U.S. dollar buying. ⑹ The schedule of Federal Reserve officials is intensive. Seven officials including Chairman Powell and Vice Chairman Bowman will deliver speeches one after another, and the market will seek clues on the policy path. ⑺Economic data continues to be missing on Thursday due to the shutdown. Although the weekly unemployment benefits data and the August wholesale trade report are not released as scheduled, they cannot be released as scheduled. ⑻The trading strategy favors range operations, and the 10-year Treasury bond yield is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4.15% to 4.10%, reflecting that the market is waiting for clear direction signals.
⑴The Indonesian Finance Minister recently disclosed that of the 200 trillion Indonesian rupiah liquidity provided to the five major state-owned banks, 56% has been converted into actual loans. ⑵The scale of this project reaches 2 millionThe liquidity support plan of 100 million Indonesian rupiah (approximately US$12.09 billion) is rapidly being transmitted to the real economy through the state-owned banking system. ⑶The Minister of Finance emphasized that liquidity policy has had a significant impact on the growth of money supply and provided strong support for economic activities. ⑷In less than a quarter, more than half of the liquidity was converted into credit, indicating that the policy transmission efficiency exceeded expectations. ⑸The five major state-owned banks, as the main channels for policy transmission, are accurately delivering central bank liquidity to corporate and residential sectors. ⑹ This data confirms that the policy path of the Indonesian authorities to stimulate economic growth through bank credit expansion is working effectively ⑺ Rapid credit release is expected to offset the impact of weak external demand on the economy and provide new momentum for economic growth in 2025.
⑴ The U.S. 2-year Treasury bond yield is at 3.595%, which is significantly higher than that of most developed countries. The interest rate difference with Germany has reached 159.2 basis points, and the interest rate difference with Japan has widened to 266.5 basis points. ⑵The UK’s 2-year yield leads the major economies at 4.007%, which is 41.2 basis points higher than the United States, reflecting its unique monetary policy pressure. ⑶The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains at a high of 4.12%, but there is a negative interest rate differential of 59.4 basis points with the United Kingdom and a 23.9 basis point gap with Australia. ⑷Germany, as the benchmark for the Eurozone, has a 2-year yield of only 2.003%, in sharp contrast to U.S. bonds, with the 10-year German bond yield at 2.682%. ⑸ The yield on Japanese government bonds continues to be low, with the 2-year maturity at only 0.93% and the 10-year maturity at 1.697%, remaining at the lowest level among major economies. ⑹ The yield curve shows that the United States maintains an advantage of more than 100 basis points over the core countries in the Eurozone, but there is an inversion in yields over the qxkkl.cnmonwealth countries. ⑺ There are obvious differences within Europe. Italy’s 10-year yield is 79.9 basis points higher than Germany’s, while France’s is 82.3 basis points higher. ⑻The current global bond market landscape highlights the differentiation of monetary policies, and investors are reassessing the growth prospects and inflationary pressures of various economies.
⑴Etsutaka Honda, the economic adviser to Japan's next prime minister Sanae Takaichi, said that Japan's economy is still fragile, and the Bank of Japan should remain highly cautious about raising interest rates again. ⑵Honda clearly stated that it "sincerely hopes that the Bank of Japan will not raise interest rates now," but emphasized that the decision-making power of monetary policy still rests with the central bank independently. ⑶Although market expectations for an interest rate hike in December or January are rising, Honda revealed that Takaichi Sanae himself is cautious about the timing of interest rate hikes. ⑷As one of the architects of "Abenomics", Honda believes that Japan is in a subtle stage of transition from deflationary thinking to inflation expectations. ⑸The election of the leader of the ruling party in Takaichi has created positive momentum, driving up the stock market and depressing the yen exchange rate, partly due to expectations of continuation of stimulus policies. ⑹ Market expectations for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates have cooled significantly. The probability of raising interest rates at the end of October has dropped to 27%, and the probability of raising interest rates in December is 44%. ⑺Honda believes that the yen is appropriate during the economic recovery stageDepreciation is good for the economy, but sharp depreciation beyond 155 yen to the dollar is expected to be unlikely. ⑻ The Japanese yen exchange rate has fallen by more than 3.8% this week, hitting 153 yen per US dollar on Thursday, the lowest level since February.
⑴ South Africa’s manufacturing output monthly rate in July was revised down from -0.5% to -0.8%, and the annual rate worsened from -0.7% to -1.3%, both of which suffered significant declines. ⑵In August, the annual rate of manufacturing output plummeted by 1.5%, far worse than market expectations of -0.1%, indicating that the industry's recession continued to deepen. ⑶ After seasonally adjustment, the monthly rate in August only increased slightly by 0.4%, which was lower than the market consensus of 0.5%. The recovery momentum was obviously insufficient. ⑷Manufacturing output increased by 1.5% month-on-month in the three months to August, but this increase was offset by the recent sharp decline. ⑸ Output data for two consecutive months have been lower than expected, indicating that South Africa's manufacturing industry is facing the dual pressure of weak demand and structural adjustment. ⑹ The range of data revisions exceeds the normal range, reflecting that the statistical agency's assessment of the actual operating conditions of the economy has become pessimistic.
⑴ Institutional analysts pointed out that the recent weakening of the U.S. labor market may not cause substantial damage to consumer spending. ⑵ Consumption growth is increasingly driven by the wealthiest household groups, which continue to reap benefits from rebounding financial asset prices. ⑶ As long as the wealth effect maintains its current positive trend, the impact of the decline in the job market on overall consumption will be relatively limited. ⑷The rise in asset prices and the performance of the labor market are decoupled, and the consumption drivers of different income groups are diverging. ⑸ High-end consumer groups are less sensitive to fluctuations in the employment market, and their consumption decisions focus more on investment portfolio performance and wealth accumulation. ⑹ In the current economic environment, the effect of monetary policy on consumption through the capital market may be more significant than traditional employment income channels.
⑴ U.S. bond yields of various maturities fluctuated within a narrow range, with the two-year yield fluctuating in the range of 3.576%-3.595% and the ten-year yield in the range of 4.108%-4.136%. ⑵The yield curve remains stable, with the 2s/10s spread at 53.9 basis points and the 5s/30s spread at 99.4 basis points, reflecting that the market’s expectations for the path of interest rates have not changed significantly. ⑶The trading volume of 30-year treasury bond futures was only 170,000 lots, which was far lower than the average level, indicating that the market trading activity was obviously insufficient. ⑷The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that officials are divided on the path of interest rate cuts, and the lack of economic data caused by the government shutdown has exacerbated policy uncertainty. ⑸The Wall Street Journal analysis pointed out that the surge in gold is out of touch with the bond market’s inflation expectations, and long-term inflation expectations remain basically stable. ⑹ The day focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s pre-recorded speech and the public statements of many officials, as the market sought new clues on policy direction. ⑺The Ministry of Finance will issue US$90 billion in 6-week, 13-week and 26-week treasury bills, and continued the issuance of 30-year Treasury bonds ⑻ JPMorgan Chase CEO Dimon reiterated the risk of a correction in U.S. stocks. German exports unexpectedly fell 0.5% in August, and global trade uncertainty continues to ferment.
EUR/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, EUR/USD fell and is now at 1.1609, a decrease of 0.17%. In pre-market trading in New York, (EURUSD) price fell from recent intraday levels as it continues to qxkkl.cne under negative pressure as it trades below the EMA50, while being dominated by a bearish corrective trend on a short-term basis and trading along the trend line. Additionally, the RSI showed negative divergence, with negative signals emerging from it after the price action exceeded overbought levels, adding to the negative pressure.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3371, a decrease of 0.24%. Before the New York market opened, in the latest intraday trading, the (GBPUSD) price closed cautiously high and once again tested the resistance level of 1.3415. The positive signal of the relative strength indicator provided support. At the same time, it tried to alleviate the oversold condition, paving the way for more losses to be recorded in the future, continuing the bearish trend in the short term, and trading along the support trend line.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now trading at 4040.78, a decrease of 0.02%. The (gold) price closed higher on the last trading day in New York, with its trading stable above $4,000, supported by its continued trading above the EMA50 and dominated by the main bullish trend on a short-term basis and trading along the support trend line. In addition to the beginning of positive divergence in the relative strength indicator, it successfully unloaded its overbought status until it reached exaggerated oversold levels qxkkl.cnpared to the price movement and positive signals emerged, opening the way to record new all-time highs.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver has risen, now trading at 49.864, an increase of 2.09%. Pre-market in New York, (silver) price stood on the threshold of a new all-time high in the latest intraday session, hitting our last expected target of $49.70. Noting that silver’s highest all-time level at $49.77 is supported by its continued trading above the EMA50 and has fully dominated the main bullish trend and trading along the secondary trend line in the short term. Moreover, after unloading the overbought conditions it had in the previous session, the relative strength indicator is outPositive signals emerged, opening the way to achieve more benefits.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now trading at 62.380, a decrease of 0.22%. Crude oil prices fluctuated in the last intraday session before the New York market opened, with a bullish correction wave dominating the short term, while the relative strength indicator showed positive signals after prices successfully eased their overbought conditions. On the other hand, the main bearish trend remains dominant and as the price trades below the EMA50, negative pressure persists, restraining price gains.
Francois Rimeu, an analyst at Credit Mutuel Asset Management, said in a report that the recent deterioration of the U.S. labor market may not weaken U.S. consumption. Rimeu said U.S. consumption is increasingly driven by the wealthiest households, who have benefited from rising financial assets. He said that as long as the wealth effect remains strong, the decline in the labor market "may not have a substantial impact on consumption."
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