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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM official website]: Gold prices fell nearly 2% from historical highs, Hamas signed the Gaza ceasefire agreement, and investors took profits." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (October 10, Beijing time), spot gold was trading around US$3,984.70 per ounce, and the price of gold dropped from a record high of US$4,059.07 on Thursday. / ounce fell as the U.S. dollar strengthened and gold investors took profits after Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement; U.S. crude oil traded around $61.48 per barrel, with oil prices closing lower on Thursday after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement in Gaza.
U.S. stocks ended lower on Thursday as investors took the opportunity to consolidate before the start of the third-quarter earnings season in the absence of economic data and market sentiment catalysts.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell from record closing highs set on Wednesday, while the Dow closed with its largest one-day percentage drop.
Matthew Keator, managing partner of wealth management qxkkl.cnpany KeatorGroup in Lenox, Massachusetts, said that the earnings season is about to begin, and the market is waiting to see whether the profit growth in this quarter can continue the stable performance of the past two quarters. Coupled with the uncertainty caused by the lack of data release in Washington and how the Federal Reserve will respond to this situation, it is natural for some corrections to occur.
Stocks took a break after a surge fueled by artificial intelligence. The rally has stoked concerns about a bubble forming and could signal a correction is qxkkl.cning.
This Sunday will mark the third anniversary of the current bull market; the S&P 500 hit the low of this market cycle on October 12, 2022, when the Wa.The Reserve Bank is tightening monetary policy. Technology and related mega-cap stocks have driven the index up nearly 90% since then, and history suggests the current bull market has further upside potential.
The U.S. government shutdown has entered its ninth day, with little sign of progress. Market participants therefore remain unable to access key economic data. A lack of market catalysts as the third-quarter earnings season gets underway has investors turning their attention to qxkkl.cnments from monetary policy officials for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates before the end of the year.
New York Fed President Williams said in an interview with the New York Times on Thursday that he supports the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year in view of the possibility of further slowdown in the job market.
According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, financial markets currently predict a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the October 28-29 meeting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.52% to 46358.42 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.28% to 6735.11 points; the Nasdaq Index fell 0.08% to 23024.63 points.
Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 index, the materials sector suffered the largest decline, and consumer staples stocks were the only sector to rise.
The housing and residential construction sectors underperformed significantly, both falling more than 2% due to margin and demand concerns.
Next Tuesday, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will release quarterly results, marking the unofficial start of the third-quarter earnings season.
According to the latest data from London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), analysts currently expect third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 qxkkl.cnpanies to increase by 8.8% year-on-year, down from 13.8% in the second quarter and 9.1% in the same period last year.
Delta Airlines announced stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and gave optimistic expectations for the current quarter, with its stock price rising 4.3%. Other U.S. airlines also rose, pushing the S&P 1500 airline index up 1.9%.
Lithium producer Albemarle shares rose 5.3% after brokerage TDCowen raised its target price.
Gold prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday, falling below the $4,000/ounce milestone for the first time in the previous session, as the dollar strengthened and gold investors took profits after Israel reached a ceasefire agreement with Hamas.
Silver has also fallen from its all-time high of $51.22 per ounce, suppressed by the same factors that affect gold.
Spot gold fell to $3,959.48 per ounce, a drop of nearly 2%. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 2.4% to close at $3,972.6. Silver was flat at $48.93 an ounce.
The U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, near a two-month high, with independent metals trader Tai Wong saying speculators are taking their hands off the table as a Gaza ceasefire agreement takes effectGo for some gold chips, as this lowers the level of tension in this historically volatile region. Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire on Thursday, the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's initiative to end the war in Gaza.
Gold and silver may need to consolidate further, but the main drivers of the rebound -- reserve diversification and large, growing global sovereign debt -- remain fully valid and keep the bullish outlook intact, Wong said.
Gold prices broke through $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Wednesday, reaching a record high of $4,059.05. The non-yielding asset has traditionally been considered a hedge amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and gold prices have risen about 52% this year.
Geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, increased ETF inflows, expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and tariff-related economic uncertainty have driven gold prices higher.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting released on Wednesday showed that Fed officials agreed that the risks to the U.S. job market were high enough to warrant a rate cut, but remained vigilant amid stubborn inflation.
Traders believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December is 95% and 80% respectively.
Silver has gained 69% so far this year due to the same macroeconomic forces that drove gold's rise and tight supply in the physical market.
Platinum fell 2.4% to $1,622.25; palladium fell 1.7% to $1,425.36.
Oil prices ended lower on Thursday after Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed a ceasefire agreement in Gaza. Brent crude futures closed down 1.6% at $65.22 a barrel. U.S. crude oil closed down 1.7% at $61.51.
Israel and Hamas signed a ceasefire on Thursday and released Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump's initiative to end the war in Gaza.
Under the ceasefire, fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza, and Hamas will release all remaining hostages it captured in the attacks that triggered the war in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel.
Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said, "Crude oil futures are in a correction phase as the conflict between Israel and Hamas looks to be qxkkl.cning to an end."
The "OPEC+" group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and oil-producing allies agreed on Sunday to increase production in November, but the increase was lower than market expectations, easing concerns about oversupply.
Oil prices rose about 1% on Wednesday, reaching a one-week high, after investors viewed stalled progress in a Ukraine peace deal as a sign that sanctions on Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, will remain in place for some time.
Democratic and Republican bills to fund the U.S. government and end the shutdown have yet to pass in the SenateThe required number of votes must be required to pass. A prolonged shutdown could depress the economy and hurt oil demand.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said he spoke to U.S. President Trump on Thursday, adding that they "reviewed the good progress made in trade negotiations" and agreed to stay in close contact in the qxkkl.cning weeks.
The United States has imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities and ships for assisting Iran's trade in oil and petrochemical products, the U.S. government said on Thursday.
The yen fell to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar since mid-February on Thursday, as the newly elected chairman of Japan's ruling party, Sanae Takaichi, failed to give the market confidence in the direction of the exchange rate.
Takaichi Sanae said that she did not want to trigger excessive depreciation of the yen. This statement briefly caused the yen to rebound briefly, but then fell back to the low of the day.
Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investment platform investingLive in Toronto, said, “We did see a brief rise in the yen, which at least shows that they are paying attention, but we don’t know that ‘excessive’ means she "What does it mean to be within the tolerance range," Takaichi Sanae added, "There are pros and cons to a weaker yen."
The U.S. dollar was last up 0.27% at 153.09 yen, hitting 153.23 yen at one point, the highest since February 13. The yen continued to weaken this week on concerns that Takaichi Sanae will launch a more expansionary fiscal policy. However, the yen's losses slowed as traders assessed her room to stimulate the economy. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said traders are increasingly doubting the Sanae government's ability to pass fiscal stimulus and resist the Bank of Japan's tightening plan, reflecting inflationary dynamics in Japan. The reality is that Japanese households are demanding changes because of stubbornly high inflation.
Takaichi Sanae said that the Bank of Japan is responsible for formulating monetary policy, but any decision it makes must be consistent with the government's goals. Meanwhile, the euro fell after French Prime Minister Le Corny handed in his resignation and that of his government on Monday. The political deadlock has made it difficult to advance the austerity budget investors expect, while France's expanding fiscal deficit has also heightened market concerns. French President Macron's office said on Wednesday that he would name a new prime minister within 48 hours.
The minutes of the European Central Bank's September 10-11 meeting showed that policymakers agreed last month that the ECB's policy tools were sufficient to respond to changes in the euro zone's inflation outlook, and therefore could keep policy unchanged until more clear qxkkl.cnrmation was obtained. The euro last fell 0.61% to US$1.1555. It once touched US$1.1545, the lowest since August 5. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.62% to 99.47, the highest since August 1. The dollar was supported by more hawkish qxkkl.cnments from Federal Reserve officials.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting released on Wednesday showed that officials agreed that the risks facing the U.S. job market were sufficient to support theCut interest rates but remain wary of high inflation.
Schamotta said that we have seen Fed officials take a more hawkish stance in meeting minutes and recent remarks, which has cooled market expectations for further aggressive policy easing.
Traders currently see a 95% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October 28-29 meeting, while the probability of another rate cut in December has dropped to 82% from 90% last week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said on Thursday that the Fed should remain cautious in further cutting interest rates due to the risk of inflation.
New York Fed President Williams said in an interview with the New York Times on Thursday that he supports the Federal Reserve continuing to cut interest rates this year in view of the possibility of further slowdown in the job market.
Traders are also paying attention to how long the U.S. federal government shutdown will last. The longer the shutdown lasts, the greater the impact on the economy may be.
The Israeli government approved the Gaza ceasefire agreement in the early morning of the 10th. According to relevant content announced by the negotiating mediators, the agreement reached between Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) will lead to the end of the war, the release of Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners, and the entry of humanitarian relief supplies into the Gaza Strip.
On the 9th local time, the bill proposed by the U.S. Republican Party to end the U.S. government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate and the bill was not passed. U.S. President Trump said that day that he planned to cut some federal programs popular with Democrats, given that the U.S. Congress still seems to be deadlocked on reopening the government. Trump said they "will make permanent cuts and they will only cut Democratic programs." Trump has not specified which programs he plans to cut, but he has threatened for days that he would begin massive layoffs if Democrats continued to insist on concessions in exchange for passage of a federal funding bill.
Data released by the German Federal Statistics Office on the 9th showed that Germany’s exports to the United States fell by 2.5% month-on-month in August, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline. Analysts pointed out that German exports are continuing to be under pressure due to the impact of additional tariffs imposed by the United States. Data show that qxkkl.cnpared with the same period last year, Germany's exports to the United States fell by 20.1% in August to 10.9 billion euros, the lowest level since November 2021. Dirk Jandula, chairman of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association, issued a statement on the 9th, saying that Germany’s foreign trade situation remains severe and has been at a standstill for several months. He said that although Germany's exports to China increased in August, it was difficult to qxkkl.cnpletely offset the negative impact on Germany's foreign trade caused by the decline in German exports to the United States due to the tariff crisis. Data from the German Federal Statistical Office also show that by season and working dayAfter adjustment, in August, German exports fell by 0.5% month-on-month; among other major export markets, German exports to China increased by 5.4% month-on-month.
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves should not renege on a promise not to raise taxes on those in office in next month's budget speech and should raise income tax rather than raise revenue through more destructive economic means, a think tank said on Friday. The British National Institute of Economic and Social Research said that to raise the 30 billion pounds (about 40 billion U.S. dollars) of fiscal revenue expected by Reeves, other options would also have an excessive impact on the economy. Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised voters before last year's general election that there would be no increase in the social security contribution rate, value-added tax or income tax for "people in work", nor would there be an increase in the main tax on corporate profits. In last year's first budget, Reeves raised the tax rate on social security contributions paid by employers for employees, but she said she remained qxkkl.cnmitted to not increasing the tax burden on workers.
European Central Bank meeting minutes show that ECB policymakers are in no hurry to cut interest rates again, although they are acutely aware of unusually high uncertainties and risks. The European Central Bank kept interest rates steady in September and even gave a mildly optimistic assessment of the euro zone economy, suggesting the bar for further policy easing is high even as U.S. tariffs continue to cloud the outlook. "Given the two-sided risks to inflation and taking into account the full range of possible scenarios, current interest rate levels should be considered sufficiently robust to manage shocks," the meeting minutes said. Since the meeting, the likelihood of further rate cuts has declined further due to relatively benign data and ECB President Christine Lagarde's qxkkl.cnments that uncertainty around the inflation outlook is narrowing. The minutes of the meeting stated: "The current situation is likely to change significantly at some point, but it is currently difficult to judge when and in which direction. The strategy of continuing to wait for more qxkkl.cnrmation is still of high value." However, considering the large number of downside risks, the door to further easing is not qxkkl.cnpletely closed.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged on Thursday to strengthen trade and defense cooperation, as the two leaders seek to boost their economies in the face of U.S. tariffs. Modi called India and Britain "natural partners" and said their economic ties had strengthened under Starmer. British Prime Minister Starmer, who visited India for the first time since taking office, praised the South Asian country's "amazing development story" and promoted the free trade agreement signed by the two countries in July this year. Starmer led more than a hundred British business and cultural leaders to visit India to promote the early implementation of the trade agreement. It is the first time a British prime minister has visited India since Theresa May nine years ago, shortly after Britain voted to leave the European Union.similar visits. During the meeting, the leaders of the two countries qxkkl.cnmitted to deepening cooperation in education, science and technology, critical minerals and national defense. Modi said, "We are promoting joint production in the defense field."
Ties between Venezuela and the United States continue to be tense. Since the beginning of September, the United States has deployed a number of warships in the Caribbean waters near Venezuela and destroyed a number of so-called "drug-transporting ships" under the pretext of "fighting Latin American drug trafficking groups." On the 8th, at a meeting held in Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, Rodriguez, Chairman of the Venezuelan National Congress, condemned in strong terms a series of recent actions by the United States against Venezuela.
We learned from the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing that since this year, my country’s international air cargo routes have continued to become denser. According to statistics from the Air Logistics Branch of the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, a total of 17 new international air cargo routes were opened across the country in September, with more than 46 round-trip flights added every week. As of September 30, a total of 169 new international air cargo routes have been opened across the country, and more than 352 round-trip flights have been added every week.
The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing announced today (10th) the China warehousing index for September. The index rebounded slightly from the previous month, and the new orders index returned to the expansion range, indicating that warehousing business activities have picked up. China's warehousing index in September was 49.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. As weather factors recede and the traditional peak season arrives, warehousing business activity has picked up. From the perspective of sub-indexes, the new order index was 51%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range, and the demand for warehousing business tends to be strong. From the perspective of varieties, the new order index for non-ferrous metals, mineral products, pharmaceuticals and other varieties is in the expansion range. The facility utilization index is 51%, and the facility utilization index for steel, non-ferrous metals, agricultural and sideline products, cotton and linen, etc. is higher than 50%. From a later perspective, the business activity expectation index continues to be in the expansion range and remains at a high level, and the corporate employee index has also rebounded significantly, indicating that qxkkl.cnpanies are increasingly optimistic about future expectations.
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