The dollar stands at the 99 mark, and the Fed’s “third leaders” support further interest rate cuts

On October 10, in early Asian trading on Friday, Beijing time, the U.S. dollar index was hovering around 98.38. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, standing above the 99 mark, and finally closed up 0.56% at 99.39, continuing to hit a more than 2-month high. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.144%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is sensitive to the Fed's policy rate, closed at 3.605%. As the U.S. dollar rose and gold investors took profits after Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement, spot gold once fell by more than $100 from its historical high, eventually closing down 1.62% at $3,976.19 per ounce. qxkkl.cnpany; Spot silver went on a roller coaster, reaching a maximum of $51.223 per ounce, setting another 14-year high. The U.S. market fell sharply, erasing most of the day's gains, and finally closed up 0.82% at $49.27 per ounce. As tensions in the Middle East take a turn for the better, international crude oil gives back some of its risk premium. WTI crude oil ended its four-day winning streak, once falling below the $61 mark, and finally closed down 1.29% at $61.17/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.2% at $65.01/barrel.

Analysis of major currency trends

U.S. dollar index: As of press time, the U.S. dollar is hovering around 98.38. On Thursday, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.5%, strengthening for four consecutive trading days. It hit a new high in nearly two months to 99.55, and finally closed at 99.37. The rise directly raises the cost of dollar-denominated gold for overseas buyers, making it less attractive. Technically, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the resistance levels of 98.85–99.00 and attempted to close above the 99.50 level. ifThis attempt is successful and the US dollar index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.00–100.15 range.

Euro: As of press time, EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1567 The resignation of French Prime Minister Sebastian Lecornu has investors worried about the country's fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, Lecornu continues talks with the opposition and President Emmanuel Macron is set to name a new prime minister on Friday. Technically, if EUR/USD remains below the support at 1.1585–1.1600, it will head towards the next support at 1.1450–1.1465.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3303. Sterling failed to find respite from expectations that the Bank of England will keep interest rates at 4% for the rest of the year, as signs of accelerating inflation and a more resilient economy reduced the case for further easing. Technically, the pound is extending its slow and painful bullish recovery after falling to a seven-week low last Thursday. A successful technical test of the 1.3330–1.3350 support level will push GBP/USD towards the next support level of 1.3150–1.3165.

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1) Gold market trend analysis

In the Asian market on Friday, gold hovered around 3391.40. Gold market sentiment turned negative on Thursday. Gold prices fell as traders took profits, falling to a daily low of $3,944 as Chinese traders returned from holidays. Optimistic news about a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Hamas added to the relief sentiment among market participants.

Technical: Gold's rally remains intact despite continued declines that have pushed gold below $4,000. Momentum is mildly bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls from around 86.13 to 75.40, below the overbought level of 70, which typically triggers a sell signal. If gold moves back above $4,000, it is expected to test the all-time high of $4,059, followed by $4,100 and $4,150. Conversely, a daily close below $3,950 could open the door for a retracement to the 3,800-day simple moving average (SMA) at $20.

2) Crude oil market trend analysis

On Friday’s Asian session, crude oil was trading around 61.20. Because of the Middle EastGeopolitical tensions have eased and WTI has lost its appeal. Traders will be closely watching how long the U.S. federal government shutdown will last. Bloomberg reported late Thursday that Israel had begun enforcing a ceasefire in Gaza after reaching an agreement with Hamas on the release of all hostages it held. The ceasefire agreement calls for an end to hostilities in Gaza, a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops and the release of hostages acquired by Hamas during the war in exchange for hundreds of prisoners. Reducing tensions in the Middle East, which is the source of one-third of the world's crude oil, dragged WTI lower.

Technical aspect: From a technical point of view, the daily chart of WTI crude oil shows that the price has continued to run in a downward channel after falling back from the high point in mid-September. The short-term moving averages (MA10 and MA20) have formed a clear cross, indicating that the market's short-term momentum is still bearish. If WTI falls below the $61 support range, the next target may be $59.50; the upper resistance level is between $63.80 and $64.20. The reduction in trading volume indicates that the wait-and-see sentiment of both bulls and bears has increased, and the short-term trend may be dominated by range-bound fluctuations.

October 10, 2025 Foreign Exchange Market Transaction Alert

①15:00 Swiss Consumer Confidence Index in September

②20:30 Canadian Employment Number in September< /p>

③21:45 The Federal Reserve Goolsby delivered a speech at the meeting

④22:00 The initial value of the one-year inflation rate expectation in the United States in October

⑤22:00 The U.S. Michigan University in October Learn from the initial value of the consumer confidence index

⑥The total number of oil drilling rigs in the United States for the week to October 10 at 01:00 the next day

⑦The Fed Musallem gave a speech at 01:00 the next day

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