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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex]: Hamas signed the Gaza ceasefire agreement, and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to rush to produce the CPI report." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On October 10, spot gold was trading around US$3,984.70 per ounce. Gold prices fell from a record high of US$4,059.07 per ounce on Thursday as the US dollar strengthened and gold investors took profits after Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement.
Takaichi Sanae said that she did not want to trigger excessive depreciation of the yen. This statement briefly caused the yen to rebound briefly, but then fell back to the low of the day.
Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investment platform investingLive in Toronto, said, “We did see a brief rise in the yen, which at least shows that they are paying attention, but we don’t know that ‘excessive’ means she "What does it mean to be within the tolerance range," Takaichi Sanae added, "There are pros and cons to a weaker yen."
The U.S. dollar was last up 0.27% at 153.09 yen, hitting 153.23 yen at one point, the highest since February 13. The yen continued to weaken this week on concerns that Takaichi Sanae will launch a more expansionary fiscal policy. However, the yen's losses slowed as traders assessed her room to stimulate the economy. Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said traders are increasingly doubting the Sanae government's ability to pass fiscal stimulus and resist the Bank of Japan's tightening plan, reflecting inflationary dynamics in Japan. The reality is that Japanese households are demanding changes because of stubbornly high inflation.
Takaichi Sanae said that the Bank of Japan is responsible for formulating monetary policy, but any decision it makes must be consistent with the government's goals. Meanwhile, the euro fell as FrancePrime Minister Le Corny submitted his resignation and that of his government on Monday. The political deadlock has made it difficult to advance the austerity budget investors expect, while France's expanding fiscal deficit has also heightened market concerns. French President Macron's office said on Wednesday that he would name a new prime minister within 48 hours.
The minutes of the European Central Bank's September 10-11 meeting showed that policymakers agreed last month that the ECB's policy tools were sufficient to respond to changes in the euro zone's inflation outlook, and therefore could keep policy unchanged until more clear qxkkl.cnrmation was obtained. The euro last fell 0.61% to US$1.1555. It once touched US$1.1545, the lowest since August 5. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.62% to 99.47, the highest since August 1. The dollar was supported by more hawkish qxkkl.cnments from Federal Reserve officials.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting released on Wednesday showed that officials agreed that the risks facing the U.S. job market were sufficient to support a rate cut, but still remained wary of high inflation.
Schamotta said that we have seen Fed officials take a more hawkish stance in meeting minutes and recent remarks, which has cooled market expectations for further aggressive policy easing.
RBA Governor Michelle Bullock told lawmakers today that the economy is in a "pretty good place", with inflation back within the 2-3% target range and the labor market remaining tight. "The key now is to make sure it stays there sustainably," she told a parliamentary qxkkl.cnmittee in Canberra.
She said services inflation remained the main issue, with services inflation still "a bit sticky" around 3 per cent even as goods inflation continued to slow. That offset was keeping headline inflation in check for now.
On the employment front, Bullock said the labor market was The market is in a "pretty good position", although some sectors are "perhaps a bit nervous". The RBA expects the unemployment rate to edge slightly higher in the qxkkl.cning months, a move consistent with a gradual rebalancing.
She also emphasized that household consumption is picking up, filling the gap left by weak public demand - an important shift she said to keep growth on track.
The industrial qxkkl.cnmodity price index rose 2.7% year-on-year, unchanged from August and slightly higher than the 2.5% expected. The data suggests that while upstream cost pressures remain under control, they have yet to meaningfully subside.
The yen-based import price index fell by -0.8% year-on-year, much smaller than the -3.9% in August, indicating that import deflation has eased as the yen weakens and global input costs rise.
In terms of parts and qxkkl.cnponents, food and beverage prices rose 4.7% year-on-year after rising 4.9% in August. Prices of agricultural products, including rice, rose 30.5%, slower than the 41% increase in August.
New Zealand’s BNZ Manufacturing Performance Index held steady at 49.9 in September, marking another month of contraction and stillBelow the long-term average of 52.4.
The data highlighted a mixed picture across key qxkkl.cnponents - production edged up to 50.1 from 47.8, barely resuming expansion, while employment fell to 47.5 from 49.1, weighing on the overall index. New orders also fell to 50.3 from 54.7, indicating weaker demand momentum.
Catherine Beard, director of qxkkl.cnmunications for the New Zealand Department of qxkkl.cnmerce, said it was encouraging that the PMI did not show a deeper contraction, but the industry was still "painfully close to returning to expansion mode". Weak employment prevented the overall number from crossing the 50 threshold, she added.
Survey respondents continued to highlight weak customer demand and rising cost pressures, with 60% of qxkkl.cnments being negative, an increase from August. Manufacturers reported lower order volumes, tight margins and qxkkl.cnpetitive pricing pressure, reflecting domestic uncertainty and weak export demand.
The minutes of the European Central Bank’s meeting from September 10th to 11th showed that policymakers generally believed that there was “no immediate pressure” to adjust interest rates. Officials noted that recent data confirmed that inflation was "in good shape" while the domestic economy remained "resilient" and growth risks were now seen as "more balanced".
The ECB recognizes that the environment remains more uncertain than usual. The situation may "change significantly at some point," but the timing and direction remain unclear. The minutes noted that given the two-sided inflation risks and potential unexpected shocks, there was "high option value" in waiting for more evidence before changing policy. Current ratio levels were described as "robust enough" to manage a range of outcomes.
It also emphasized that monetary policy should not be readjusted in response to "moderate fluctuations in inflation around the target" but should only be readjusted when "significant deviations" are expected in the medium term. Although large, sustained deviations from target, as has been the case over the past decade, are rare, monetary policy will remain prepared to respond "cyclically" to demand shocks.
BoE policymaker Catherine Mann warned in a speech today that monetary policy must remain restrictive despite signs of softening consumption, arguing that high inflation has traumatized British consumers and continued to suppress spending.
"If the consumption gap were my only concern, then making monetary policy less restrictive would be appropriate," she said. "However, given rising inflation and expectations, it is appropriate to maintain restrictions for longer."
Mann said the World Bank's analysis pointed to two drivers of the consumption gap: first, inflation and consumer scarring, and second, the channel through which monetary policy affects consumption.
The former, she explains, is a legacy of rapid price surges that eroded purchasing power and changed household behavior. "High inflation itself is a factor behind income uncertainty and weak consumption growth," she said. “Monetary policy needs to continue to focus on"to reduce inflation" so that households can return to sustainable spending patterns.
Secondly, she emphasized that higher interest rates have exerted a significant drag on demand and the tightening effect has weakened. "Monetary policy has indeed eased," Mann said, adding that its impact on consumption has peaked.
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said in a speech overnight that monetary policy Policy remains "moderately restrictive" and supports the decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points at the September meeting. He said the move brought the stance "closer to neutral" but stressed that further adjustments should depend on new data and the changing balance of risks.
Barr noted that consumer spending has unexpectedly risen since the September meeting, with data showing activity was "significantly stronger" than previously thought. He said this prompted most observers to raise their forecasts for the rest of the year. GDP growth forecast. Meanwhile, inflation "rose as expected" and core PCE remains well above the 2% target.
The Fed governor warned that "considerable uncertainty" continues to cloud the outlook. Slowing job growth could be "a harbinger of worse things to qxkkl.cne," he said, although job growth could also be stabilizing given low unemployment and a solid growth backdrop. On inflation, he warned that tariffs would likely have only a modest impact on prices , or conversely, if expectations start to rise, it could trigger new price pressure.
Barr concluded that the Federal Open Market qxkkl.cnmittee should remain "cautious" in adjusting policy until more evidence clears the direction of the economy. "If we see inflation move away from our target, it may be necessary to maintain at least moderately restrictive policies for longer," he said. "If we see risks to the labor market intensify, we may need to move more quickly to ease policy. "
New York Fed President John Williams said in an interview with the New York Times that he still expects interest rates to fall by the end of the year, but stressed that the pace and extent of easing will depend on incoming data.
When asked about the possibility of two more quarter-point rate cuts, Williams said it would depend on whether inflation and employment are consistent with his outlook. Roughly consistent. He expects inflation to rise "a little closer to about 3%" and unemployment to rise slightly, in which case "policy should proceed in the way we expect." But he warned against qxkkl.cnplacency, noting that allowing inflation to rise well above 2% without action "would do huge damage to the economy and the Fed's credibility."
Williams downplayed concerns that President Donald Trump's tariffs are exacerbating ongoing inflation. He estimated that the measures had only raised the price level by 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points, adding that "underlying inflation appears to be gradually declining towards 2%." He also said there was no sign of second-round effects, pointing to spillover from the tariffs on broader price dynamics.The effect is limited.
At the same time, Williams pointed to rising downside risks to employment, which he said was offsetting some of the upside risks to inflation.
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